by

Ngonghala, C.N., Iboi, E., Eikenberry, S., Scotch, M., MacIntyre, C.R., Bonds, M.H., Gumel, A.B. (2020). Mathematical Biosciences, p.108364.

Abstract:

A pandemic of a novel Coronavirus emerged in December of 2019 (COVID-19), causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antivirals, strategies for controlling and mitigating the burden of the pandemic are focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social-distancing, contact-tracing, quarantine, isolation, and the use of face-masks in public. We develop a new mathematical model for assessing the population-level impact of the aforementioned control and mitigation strategies. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally-asymptotically stable if a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the reproduction number (denoted by Rc), is less than unity. Simulations of the model, using data relevant to COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the US state of New York and the entire US, show that the pandemic burden will peak in mid and late April, respectively. The worst-case scenario projections for cumulative mortality (based on the baseline levels of anti-COVID non-pharmaceutical interventions considered in the study) decrease dramatically by 80% and 64%, respectively, if the strict social-distancing measures implemented are maintained until the end of May or June, 2020. The duration and timing of the relaxation or termination of the strict social-distancing measures are crucially-important in determining the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study shows that early termination of the strict social-distancing measures could trigger a devastating second wave with burden similar to those projected before the onset of the strict social-distancing measures were implemented. The use of efficacious face-masks (such as surgical masks, with estimated efficacy ≥70%) in public could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 70% of the residents of New York state use such masks in public consistently (nationwide, a compliance of at least 80% will be required using such masks). The use of low efficacy masks, such as cloth masks (of estimated efficacy less than 30%), could also lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 burden (albeit, they are not able to lead to elimination). Combining low efficacy masks with improved levels of the other anti-COVID-19 intervention strategies can lead to the elimination of the pandemic. This study emphasizes the important role social-distancing plays in curtailing the burden of COVID-19. Increases in the adherence level of social-distancing protocols result in dramatic reduction of the burden of the pandemic, and the timely implementation of social-distancing measures in numerous states of the US may have averted a catastrophic outcome with respect to the burden of COVID-19. Using face-masks in public (including the low efficacy cloth masks) is very useful in minimizing community transmission and burden of COVID-19, provided their coverage level is high. The masks coverage needed to eliminate COVID-19 decreases if the masks-based intervention is combined with the strict social-distancing strategy.



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    • Molecular Diagnostics

      Pivot has partnered with the Ministry of Public Health and Centre ValBio to develop the first molecular diagnostics laboratory for COVID-19 outside of the capital city.  We additionally have partnered with the Pasteur Institute of Madagascar on novel analysis of dried blood spots from I-HOPE survey for serological analysis of measles, malaria, schistosomiasis, Hep B, and COVID-19.

       

      Learn more: 

      Integrating Health Systems and Science to Respond to COVID-19 in a Model District of Madagascar, Rakotonanahary, R.J.L., et al., 2021, Frontiers in Public Health

      Reconciling model predictions with low reported cases of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from Madagascar, Evans, M.V., et al., 2020, Global Health Action

    • Eco-Epidemiological Surveillance

      We collate environmental surveillance data (e.g. vector surveillance) with biomarkers from household surveys (e.g. rapid tests and antibody tests from dried blood spots of participants in the I-HOPE household survey) to inform the spatio-temporal dynamics of infectious diseases.

       

      Learn more:

      Estimating the local spatio‐temporal distribution of malaria from routine health information systems in areas of low health care access and reporting, Hyde, E, et al., 2021, International Journal of Health Geographics

      Reconciling model predictions with low reported cases of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from Madagascar, Evans, M.V., et al., 2020, Global Health Action

    • GIS (geographical)

      We use a participatory approach to map over 20,000 kilometers of footpaths and 100,000 structures. These data have been combined with high resolution data on land cover, a digital elevation model, rainfall data, and geolocated data from the IHOPE cohort (see above). These data are used to determine travel times to health care, measure geographic equity, and study geospatial determinants of disease. Accessibility modeling results are available on an e-health platform developed with R Shiny.

    • IHOPE (household-level longitudinal cohort)

      The Ifanadiana Health Outcomes and Prosperity longitudinal Evaluation (IHOPE) cohort was established in 2014 at the start of Pivot’s work in Ifanadiana District. Modeled after Demographic and Health Surveys, it tracks standard international health, demographic, and socioeconomic indicators. IHOPE has the following combination of characteristics that are novel for localized interventions:

      • True baseline
      • True representative sample
      • Sample from inside and outside of the initial catchment population
      • Collection by third party professionals at the National Institute of Statistics who collect identical data nationally
      • Tracks same individuals over time
      • Includes biomarkers such as dried blood spots used for molecular analyses

       

      Learn more: 

      Baseline Population Health Conditions Ahead of a Health System Strengthening Program in Rural Madagascar, Miller, A., et al. 2017, Global Health Action

    • HMIS and Routine M&E

      Health management information systems (HMIS) collect information on health system utilization and care provision at public sector facilities. These data are combined with additional, routine monitoring and evaluation (M&E) data to track over 1000 indicators of health system performance in Ifanadiana District, including rates of treatment and service utilization, quality of care, supply stock-outs, and human resource capacity at every level. These data are accessible via a real-time dashboard.

    • Capacity-Building

      The purpose of Pivot Science is to improve health outcomes over the long-term. Central to this goal is a new capacity building program, which focuses on both increasing research skills among clinicians/implementers, as well as helping researchers better understand and inform clinical priorities. The training includes a series of workshops on understanding clinical priorities, developing research questions, methodology, and dissemination. Trainees include a range of personnel who work within Madagascar’s health sector.

    • COVID-19 and Molecular Diagnostics

      The majority of deaths in Madagascar are due to infectious diseases and most cases go undiagnosed. The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need to implement new diagnostic assays in rural health districts. Pivot has partnered with the Ministry of Public Health and Centre ValBio to develop the first molecular diagnostics laboratory for COVID-19 outside of the capital city, which provides both diagnostic capacity as well as a platform for scientific innovation at the intersection of biomedicine and planetary health.

       

      Learn more: 

      Integrating Health Systems and Science to Respond to COVID-19 in a Model District of Madagascar, Rakotonanahary, R.J.L., et al., 2021, Frontiers in Public Health

      Reconciling model predictions with low reported cases of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from Madagascar, Evans, M.V., et al., 2020, Global Health Action

    • Eco-Epidemiology & Surveillance

      There have been major advances in the science of infectious disease dynamics. But there is inadequate application of these advances at local scales to inform health interventions. We combine environmental information, spatially granular health system data, and population surveys, with mathematical models to understand and forecast local disease dynamics (such as malaria, measles, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis and diarrheal disease) to improve service delivery. 

       

      Learn more:

      Estimating the local spatio‐temporal distribution of malaria from routine health information systems in areas of low health care access and reporting, Hyde, E, et al., 2021, International Journal of Health Geographics

      Reconciling model predictions with low reported cases of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from Madagascar, Evans, M.V., et al., 2020, Global Health Action

      Towards elimination of lymphatic filariasis in southeastern Madagascar: Successes and challenges for interrupting transmission, Garchitorena, A., et al., 2018, PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases

    • Operational Research for UHC

      Operational research provides insights into how programs are implemented with an emphasis on quality and fidelity to organizational, national, and international standards. Our operational research priority areas include UHC financing, health care quality, patient satisfaction, and health worker performance. This is a high priority area for growth across clinical and data teams at Pivot. 

       

      Learn more:

      Evaluation of a novel approach to community health care delivery in Ifanadiana District, Madagascar, Razafinjato, B., et al., 2020, medRxiv

      Rapid response to a measles outbreak in Ifanadiana District, Madagascar, Finnegan, K.E., et al., 2020 medRxiv

      Networks of Care in Rural Madagascar for Achieving Universal Health Coverage in Ifanadiana District, Cordier, L.F., 2020, Health Systems & Reform

      In Madagascar, Use Of Health Care Services Increased When Fees Were Removed: Lessons For Universal Health Coverage, Garchitorena, A., et al., 2017, Health Affairs

    • Geography & Community Health

      We are advancing new methods that combine granular health system data with a massive GIS dataset containing over 100,000 structures and 15,000 miles of footpaths in the district. This is used to identify geographic barriers and improve the design of the health system to reach everyone. To overcome geographic barriers, we have piloted a model of proactive community health for Madagascar, and are evaluating its impact and feasibility.

       

      Learn more:

      Estimating the local spatio‐temporal distribution of malaria from routine health information systems in areas of low health care access and reporting, Hyde, E, et al., 2021, International Journal of Health Geographics

      Improving geographical accessibility modeling for operational use by local health actors, Ihantamalala, F.A, et al., 2020, International Journal of Health Geographics

      Evaluation of a novel approach to community health care delivery in Ifanadiana District, Madagascar, Razafinjato, B., et al., 2020, medRxiv

    • Population-Level Impact Evaluation

      We measure the impact of our work through the analysis of a district-representative longitudinal cohort. Our quasi-experimental design allows for some of the most rigorously evaluated analysis of health systems change on population health in Africa. These analyses show improvements in nearly every major health indicator, including infant mortality, under-five mortality, vaccine coverage, access to and quality of health care services, and health equity.

       

      Learn more:

      District-level health system strengthening for universal health coverage: evidence from a longitudinal cohort study in rural Madagascar, 2014-2018, Garchitorena, A., et al. 2020, BMJ Global Health

      Early changes in intervention coverage and mortality rates following the implementation of an integrated health system intervention in Madagascar, Garchitorena, A., et al. 2018, BMJ Global Health

      Assessing trends in the content of maternal and child care following a health system strengthening initiative in rural Madagascar: A longitudinal cohort study, Ezran, C., et al. 2019, PLOS Medicine

      Baseline Population Health Conditions Ahead of a Health System Strengthening Program in Rural Madagascar, Miller, A., et al. 2017, Global Health Action

    • Data Systems

      PIVOT is fully integrated with Madagascar’s Health Management information System. By combining many kinds of data – outcomes, programmatic, geographic and more – we gain insights to inform our approaches in an ongoing improvement cycle.

    • Quality of Care

      Care is of no use to our patients’ health unless it is high-quality. We focus on bringing the best possible care to all levels of the health system, whether offered at a patient’s doorstep, at health centers, or at the hospital.

    • Supply Chain & Equipment

      Constant collaboration and integration with Madagascar’s national supply chain helps maintain adequate stocks of more than 40 essential medicines and supplies across all levels of care while steadily closing the gaps on stockout rates and saving lives.

    • Finance

      PIVOT is working with the government’s National Health Solidarity Fund to create a transparent system for patients, providers, donors, and government officials, building on success in removing financial barriers to care through patient reimbursements.

    • HR & Recruitment

      Skilled, well trained and compassionate people are the most vital components of any health system. To meet the unusual challenge of a setting where posting may be truly remote, PIVOT teamed up with the Ministry of Public Health to design and implement a joint recruitment and retention strategy.

    • Infrastructure

      A public health system needs dignified and durable spaces – a difficult task in a mountainous rainforest environment. The district’s most remote facilities are a priority, where partnership with local communities and contractors ensure that rehabilitated spaces are maintained over time.

    • Emergency Transport

      74% of the people in Ifanadiana District live more than a 5-kilometer walk to the nearest health center. Our district-wide public ambulance referral system is the only one of its kind in Madagascar, operating 24/7 since 2014 to bring urgent cases in for treatment at no cost to the patient.

    • Patient Accompaniment

      PIVOT accompagnateurs welcome people into a system that may be unfamiliar. They explain the process, assist in navigating the system,address the need for food and lodging when needed, and check on the kids back home. This service, along with the improved availability and quality of care, has helped quadruple the use of outpatient health services in Pivot’s catchment area.

    • Maternal Health

      Our programs successfully address high rates of maternal deaths among the women in Ifanadiana District, who give birth an average of seven times during their reproductive lifetime, with four in every five deliveries occurring at home. In the first two years of fully supported obstetric services, access to family planning, and facility-based deliveries, the maternal mortality rate dropped by 20%.

    • Malnutrition

      More than half of the children under 5 in Madagascar are chronically malnourished. We are piloting a national program in Ifanadiana District that combines screening, treatment, and prevention across all levels of the health system to address this major cause of child mortality.

    • Tuberculosis

      TB is so prevalent in Madagascar that there are an estimated 500 new cases in our district every year, most undetected and untreated. In partnership with the National Tuberculosis Program,  we launched a program to control TB in 2017 to upgrade basic resources and capacity, and to ensure that diagnosis and treatment are available in Ifanadiana District.

    • Child Health

      Children under 5 are those most likely to die from preventable causes like malaria, pneumonia and diarrhea. We implement protocols for the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness to guide health workers in diagnosis and treatment and to assess nutrition and vaccine status in low-resource settings.